3 Against the field
Over the years I have found it difficult to consistently find winners. Quite often I would study form and get the field down to two or three potential winners. Having sat pondering over the claims of each contender I would eventually plump for one selection only all too often to find it beaten by one of the other horses I had seriously considered but rejected. No doubt you have had the same experience.
In the past I had read about various “Dutching “ systems which involved backing two or three horses in the same race. This idea originally came from a guy called Dutch Shulz (real name Arthur Simon Flegenheimer) who was a New York Gangster around the time of Prohibition. It seemed to me that there are certain races where the number of horses that had a realistic chance of winning the race could be reduced to two or three runners and providing the prices were right a profit could be made.
After considerable testing I have come up with some rules which seem to work for me and I am happy to pass them over for you to try.I use the online Racing Post to help me find the selections.
Rules:
- Between 6 and 9 runners.
- Using the Racing Post Forecast prices, the top 3 in the betting must have at least 2 clear points before the 4th .
- No odds-on favourites.
- RP Spotlight and PostData must be one of the top 3.
- No 2 year old only races, Hunter Chases, Conditional, Ladies or Amateurs only races or races where more than 1/3 of the runners have no previous form.
- Eliminate the race if there are favourable comments in RP Spotlight Verdict, RP Comments, ATR or Timeform for any runner other than the top 3.
- Place bet as near to the off as possible (never more than 1 hour before) and check that the same top 3 from the RP Forecast is still the top 3 in Live betting. Any changes and race is eliminated.
- Never bet if the favourite has gone odds on.
In practical terms look for a return of at least 20%.
The Live market may firm up on just the top 2. This may affect the potential return from a 3 horse dutch, in which case, look to dutch just the top 2. Check that there are no strong comments from RP Spotlight Verdict, RP Comments, ATR or Timeform for the 3rd runner that is being dropped.
If you have tried to make money gambling on horses you know how difficult it is to make money long term. When Betfair came along another option emerged enabling you to in effect act like a boookmaker and lay horses or in other words pick a horse that will lose. Initially it may seem easy to find a horse to lose as opposed to one that will win, however if you have tried you will know it is almost as difficult to win money in the long term using this method.